The Basic Model

This basic version of the model is applied to each of the three simulations of historic migrations - with different data and different names for the populations in each migratory process.

Categories of populations and migrants:

  1. Populations are described in five-year age groups (0-4, 5-9, etc., up to 80+). Analysis of migration and other population change take place in five-year periods.
  2. Two home populations are assumed, Home 1 and Home 2. Each population has its birth and death rates, by age and sex.
  3. Two settler populations, Home 2 Settlers and Abroad Settlers, are created through the migration of individuals from the Home 1 population.
  4. Migrant Selection 1. Migrants are selected (or self-selected) - from home population for each period, by age and sex - to become Transit 1 population.
  5. Stage 1 of transit, within homeland - with fertility and mortality rates applied to Transit 1 population for the time required for migration within the homeland.
  6. Migrant Selection 2 - from migrants in homeland transit, to go abroad. Group Transit A enters Home 2 Settlers population in homeland, Group Transit B enters transit abroad.
  7. Stage 2 of transit, abroad - with fertility and mortality rates. Surviving members of Group Transit B enter Settlers Abroad population.
  8. This process is repeated for as many five-year periods as desired. In most simulations, it has been found convenient to run the simulation for eight five-year periods, or 40 years.

    Additional migratory stages, not yet included in the program:

  9. Secondary Migration: Selection of migrants from Homeland Settlers or Abroad Settlers to migrate further - either changing location or changing status. (Described in terms of rates of selection for each period, plus rates of fertility and mortality for time period of transit to next destination or status.)
  10. Return Migration: Selection of migrants from Homeland Settlers or Abroad Settlers to return to their Home population. (Described in terms of rates of selection for each period, plus rates of fertility and mortality for time period of transit home.)